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Frequently Asked Questions

How do FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings work?

How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each firm’s polls along with its methodology. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance...

What are pollpollster ratings?

Pollster ratings were one of the founding features of FiveThirtyEight. I was… There are polls. Then, there are polls of polls. Then, there are weighted polls of polls. Above all, there is a poll of polls with weights that are statistically modeled and dynamically changing weights.

What does 538 stand for?

FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008 as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by...

What is the difference between 538 and Real Clear Politics?

For example, Real Clear Politics takes all polls averages to develop a score, whereas 538 uses weights on each poll based on demographics and much more. One can argue this is more accurate and 538’s early track record proved it was.

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